The show itself started with a strange dance number that involved BMXing, keyboards and digital paint. Some of the effects were impressive and there’s no doubting the precision that the choreography required, but compared to the London 2012 themed ‘Euphoria’ that opened Tuesday’s Semi, it lacked energy.

It mattered little, as PeR from Latvia got the party started right from the off with sparkling suits and the first stage dive in Eurovision history, made even better when the singer shouted: “FIRST STAGE DIVE IN EUROVISION HISTORY!”

There were a few surprises, as with Tuesday’s show, namely Armenia’s qualification for ‘Lonely Planet’, which featured Captain Jack Sparrow’s younger brother, and Hungary’s hipster entry ‘Kedvesem’, which made the brave decision to sidestep any attempts at charisma or melody. But fair play to them for making the cut.

Dorians Sparrow sings Lonely Planet

The favourites all made it through, with Norway’s Margaret Berger in good form (though I admit I’m still not fond of the song), and Azerbaijan and Georgia (who I have bets on landing a podium finish) both comfortably though – or so one assumes.

Greece were made to sweat by being announced last, but there was no way such a unifying song as ‘Alcohol Is Free’ would fall at this first hurdle. I was particularly pleased to see Malta qualify, especially after the look of extreme worry we saw on Gianluca’s face during the announcements. ‘Tomorrow’ is a charming song, in many ways at odds with Eurovision – or at least what people expect of Eurovision. But there’s still a place for understated, catchy melody and a very smiley looking man who looks like the grocer from Amélie.

They’re even wearing the same jacket.

And a final word for Cezar and Romania. When Petra uttered the four simple syllables that make ‘Romania’, I was surprised to find myself fist pumping and clapping. Yes, ‘It’s My Life’ is in many ways awful; yes, the staging is a volcanic mess; and no, I have absolutely no idea what’s going on. But it’s absolutely mental, and sometimes it’s good to have a bit of that in your life. But only safe in the knowledge that we can make it disappear at the simple click of the standby button…

Roll on the Grand Final!

The arena itself looked spectacular, and Loreen’s opening performance of Euphoria – aided by a choir of children – kicked things off in style. It was reminiscent of London’s Olympic Opening Ceremony, complete with children singing, musical crescendos and the odd bit of industrial-looking staging. In fact, you may even call it ill-judged as it was probably the best song and performance of the night…

Everything went smoothly for most of the acts, except for Cyprus who seemed to waver in and out of key like a broken umbrella in the wind. Zlata Ognevich, singing for Ukraine, was inexplicably carried in by a giant, Montenegro had rapping astronauts, and our hostess for the evening told us we were all going to die alone. There were even grumblings about Denmark’s use of gold confetti, as it sends that subliminal/not so subliminal message that the song is already the winner. So all in all, another classic Eurovision evening.

Despite a few of the favourites performing this evening (Denmark, Russia, Ukraine), Thursday’s semi final will be a far more engrossing watch. There’s more variation and a more open field. That said, there was some pretty shocking results this evening. Every one of the ex-Soviet nations progressed through to the final, including relatively poor showings from Estonia, Lithuania and Belarus. It seems that despite the changes in the way scores are calculated, it’s good to have friends…

Perhaps the biggest casualty of the evening was Serbia, who many fancied to trouble the top three (in this semi final). Moje 3′s downfall was probably their amateur dramatics routine combined with inexplicable costume choices. I was also sad to see Montenegro fail to qualify, as they at least brought something different. (Even if it was a bit shit.)

To end on a positive note though, I decided to make a cheeky last minute flutter on Belgium’s ‘Love Kills’ to qualify and won the modest sum of £20, which I’ll no doubt use to reinvest in another silly bet… It probably won’t make it out of the bottom 5 in the grand final, but I’ve posted it below anyway for your enjoyment.

Bring on round 2!

It seemed that this person wouldn’t be Jenson Button as he continued his string of bad luck he suffered last year by pulling of his worst qualifying session of the season, putting his car into 14th on the grid and, despite having his best qualifying session of the season, Button’s teammate Sergio Perez only placed in 9th, completely blocking off the front of the pack from the McLaren drivers. Neither of the Ferrari drivers were able to get in up front with Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa placing 5th and 9th, respectively. Even Vettel was unable to place himself in his usual 1st place, something he has never been able to do on this track; he finished qualifying in 3rd on the grid ahead of the race. The Mercedes team seemed to be the only ones that could prove themselves during the session with Nico Rosberg in 1st and Lewis Hamilton in 2nd.

After the lights went out the two Mercedes rolled away from the line, this lazy start from both drivers allowed both Vettel and Alonso to push their way past the traffic, dropping Hamilton down into fourth as two of the most competitive drivers on the track aligned their sights on Nico Rosberg, who remained in 1st. Rosberg showed good fight but it eventually came down to a race between the two pit crews, as both the cars pitted simultaneously. The ever-perfect Red Bull crew produced a good pit, but it wasn’t enough to see Vettel gain 1st, despite all his efforts in a pit-lane race.

Adding further insult to injury, upon Vettel’s emerging from the pit lane, Alonso showed how they drive in Spain and took 3rd place behind Rosberg, who followed Gutierrez in 1st place. Rosberg was able to defend the lead from Alonso for a while but it wouldn’t take a genius to realise that Rosberg’s luck would soon run out – and after several blocks Alonso was able to pass the Mercedes driver. Vettel soon followed Alonso pushing him down into 4th as the Red Bull driver took what was now effectively 2nd and, after Gutierrez dropped into the Sauber garage, Alonso to took 1st with Vettel closing the gap behind. Massa showed he wasn’t going to let his teammate hog the limelight as a good pit and fresh tyres gave him an advantage over other drivers, helping him work his way up into 2nd.
Despite all the speed and power in Red Bull and Ferrari’s cars it was time for Lotus to show their skill. After Romain Grosjean was forced to retire after an issue with one of his wheels, the Lotus team had only one chance of getting a result in Spain. That responsibility rested on Kimi Raikkonen’s shoulders. After Raikkonen forced his way past Vettel using the sheer power behind his four wheels he began his assault on Alonso, who soon submitted to the black and gold car, pushing Raikkonen into 1st. But a DRS fuelled Ferrari F1 car is something not even Vettel can defend against and Alonso soon retook first place from the Lotus driver.After a pit stop from Raikkonen dropped him back into 3rd, Massa was able to take 2nd easily, leaving the front two places owned by the two Ferrari drivers.

Alonso managed to hold his lead to the end, taking the win on home soil, which – in an albeit strange kind of way given F1′s image – may provide a glimmer of positivity for millions of Spaniards suffering mass unemployment. Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen showed once again that he can contend with the likes of  Alonso and Vettel. The race was a good result for Ferrari as Felipe Massa took 3rd place, making it a double podium for the reds. Vettel drove quite poorly, showing he is beatable. Whether this is the beginning of the end or just a bad day for the Red Bull driver remains to be seen.

As impressive as Alonso’s win was, it does raise the question of his consistency. He hasn’t done brilliantly this year; prior to this race he was in fourth place in the Drivers’ Championship and this result has only boosted him into third. However, if you rewind to the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix, the scenes of Alonso topping the podium would have been very similar to what was seen after this race – it seems that Alonso only really makes an effort when he is proving himself to his home fans. This win might inspire him to do well outside his home country but it will take a lot of hard work to overtake the likes of Raikkonen and Vettel who take the top two spots in the championship.

Things have changed an awful lot since then. This year, 39 countries are vying for the prize (some with more conviction than others), and it takes two semi finals to reduce the competitors to 26 for next Saturday’s Grand Final. For many, the idea of willingly sitting through what will add up to over seven hours of Europe’s interpretation of music is unfathomable. For me, an ironic love has grown into a genuine affection, warts and all.

That said, my enthusiasm has yet to reach the height of recent years. Perhaps it’s because I’m no longer at University and I have an actual job which means I can’t immerse myself completely in a world of block votes and key changes. Or perhaps, as many have suggested, the quality of songs this year simply isn’t as high as in recent years. Regardless of this, here’s a quick run down of a few select entries that are worth looking out for this year…

First up let’s look to home, with Bonnie Tyler representing the UK. Not having learnt from last year, the BBC have de-cobwebbed an old songster from times gone by in the hope that nostalgia and an established European fan base (‘Total Eclipse of the Heart‘ reached the dizzy heights of 18th in the Dutch music charts in 1983) will do us all proud on the big night. Sadly, I don’t think this will be the case. While ‘Believe In Me’ is better than last year’s song, and while Bonnie Tyler couldn’t fail to be a better performer than poor old Englebert, we’d do well to finish in the top half of the leader board. In a ballad-heavy year, the song has nothing remarkable about it. Although if Bonnie performs in the same, drunken manner which I’ve seen in rehearsals, we may well rack up the points from the novelty voters…

The current favourite with the bookies is Denmark’s entry, ‘Only Teardrops’. It’s easy to see why. The song kicks off with some sort of Danish flute (ethnic instruments, check) and builds into a catchy dance number (check), performed by a very cute Danish woman (check) with a slightly ethereal dress sense and hand movements (check). This year’s competition definitely won’t see a runaway winner like ‘Euphoria‘ last year, and if ‘Only Teardrops’ is to win, it’s going to be a very close battle. There are one or two other songs I prefer, but I may well find myself backing this entry come Saturday.

Anyone looking to back a fun outsider this year could do much worse than backing Greece. Their jaunty number is an exuberant mix of sea shanty and ska, all topped off by a man with one of the greatest moustaches Eurovision has ever seen. Oh, and their song is called ‘Alcohol is Free’. A top ten finish isn’t impossible…

A final word for probably my favourite song of this year’s competition. It’s called ‘You’ and it’s sung by a remarkably endearing young chap from Sweden called Robin Stjernberg. The song is a real grower and you can definitely imagine it outside of the Eurovision bubble. I don’t think the fact that Sweden are hosting will damage the song’s chances (if anything, the host nation always performs better than it should), but because the song is a grower I worry it won’t pick up as many votes as I’d like it to. The majority of people watching on the night (you have to assume) are hearing all the songs for the first time, but you never know, I may well end up putting a cheeky flutter on a podium finish. Just have a look at his smiling face at 1:10. And then right at the end. A man so happy to be alive surely deserves your vote!

Tom Brown

Ex-McLaren driver Lewis Hamilton struggled in qualifying, as tyre problems led to only a 4th place finish, deemed no good enough in his eyes. To add further insult to injury, he was charged with a five-place grid penalty for a gearbox change, a change necessitated by the tyre issue. This helped fellow Brit Paul Di Resta, who qualified in 7th, into relatively unfamiliar territory at the front of the pack, as he was pushed up into 5th as a result of Hamilton’s penalty and also one from Webber (who initially qualified in 5th). Vettel managed to qualify 2nd; however this was somewhat drowned out by the performance of Mercedes’s Nico Rosberg, who took pole for just the second time in his career.

Rosberg didn’t get off to a great start, blocking Vettel but allowing an aggressive Fernando Alonso to break away from his Ferrari teammate Felipe Massa and slip past Vettel into second. An Alonso-Vettel battle is something we are all too familiar with but this one was over in a matter of seconds as Vettel showed the true power of his Red Bull car, storming past the Italian with no driver aid at all. Feeling Vettel’s breath down his neck, Rosberg attempted to make a break from the pack but it was not enough to stop Vettel from momentarily taking first place, before taking a wide corner allowed Rosberg to draw even with him and eventually push him back down into second place.

Rosberg’s three-lap lead was cut prematurely short as his defensive driving couldn’t stand another charge from Vettel, with the German again showing the power behind his four wheels – forcing his way past the Mercedes driver into his 1st place comfort zone. Rosberg dropped a further place as Alonso stormed his way past to catch up with Vettel. However, this was short lived as Rosberg, not wanting to give up his lead this early, fought back to reclaim second place and continue his crawl to resume his battle with Vettel.

Again Rosberg felt the pressure of the Ferrari bearing down on him, and as Alonso went in for another attack it seemed Rosberg was out of energy to put up a fight, as the Italian easily pushed his way past the young German. His new threat was new kid on the block Di Resta, who, despite seeming to always place mid-grid, was showing he can contend for the top spots.

Sergio Perez showed he was tired of the quiet start he has had since joining McLaren, as he started to become a little more aggressive…towards his teammate. Clearly it’s an equal playing field on the outside of Perez’s visor. DRS issues meant Alonso had to pit, allowing Di Resta to easily slip up into second, and just as Rosberg was preparing to get himself back into the game his race enthusiasm took another knock as Ferrari’s second driver, Massa, rushed to take his teammate’s place, dropping Rosberg down into fourth. And, after a pit dropped him down into twelfth, it seemed that the race leader wouldn’t have to worry too much about his fellow German.

After Vettel dropped down into fifth following a pit, Di Resta was able to take the lead, in scenes reminiscent of last year’s race in Bahrain. However, it wouldn’t take a genius to work out that Vettel wouldn’t stay in fifth for long, as he moved into fourth and started challenging  for third. After Di Resta was called into the pits Raikkonen took a brief lead before he was passed by Vettel, keen to get back in the driving seat.

Vettel, back in front, managed to create such a gap that even pitting, albeit a typically impressive one from the Red Bull team, allowed  him to emerge just in front of Lotus’ Romain Grosjean.

Meanwhile, Perez and Button continued their personal duel. Despite being teammates there was no sign of either playing friendly as Perez bore down upon Button, who repeatedly blocked him from passing. After contact was made, Perez appeared to back off a little, then Button blocked him again. Not even the contact appeared to calm Perez down, and yet another attack on his teammate ended in Perez being pushed off the track by Button. It appears Button is not letting anything stop him from getting ahead this season.

Vettel maintained his lead to the end, showing once again his willingness to win another title. Paul Di Resta seemed to be in for his first career podium finish as he took third place into the latter stages of the race – only to be overtaken by Grosjean, after which he didn’t have enough fight left to regain that podium finished he so craved – showing once more how cruel F1 can be.

There were no surprises about another Vettel win; love him or loathe him, he is the best racer out there. His critics argue that he isn’t a true racer; he just qualifies at the front and stays there. It’s an interesting argument but 2012′s season finale showed he can pull himself back from the brink on the rare occasions it’s called for. However impressive Vettel’s win was, it seems that the true man of the hour is Paul Di Resta, with a result that might not have been the podium finish he wanted but still matched his best ever result. For a driver who always seems to be placed in 10th or 11th on the grid this race could prove a real encouragement for this young driver. We’ll begin to find out from the next race, in Spain.

Tom Hibbs

It has been pointed out many times that Thatcher, unlike the majority of current-day politicians, was a figure of fierce conviction. She was frustrated at what she perceived as a lack of drive and spirit in 1970s Britain, characterised by an overarching state and sluggish industries. She firmly believed that British success, both individually and collectively, would come through hard work, grit and determination. Such conviction was bound to result in admiration and hatred in equal measure. While her liberal economic policies cleared the way for many to achieve their potentials, equally they trampled on those from poorer, socially immobile backgrounds who beforehand had been propped up by the manufacturing industries, and who did not have the means with which to pursue the free market dream. Allowing underperforming industries to stumble on was not part of Thatcher’s plan – her time in office resulted in the loss of huge numbers of working class jobs. While the 1980s saw the City of London take off as a global financial powerhouse, unemployment in northern areas rocketed. Thatcher’s fixation with entrepreneurship and economic prosperity paid scant regard to the rising inequality levels caused by such free market policies. While many respected her focus on hard work, many more openly despised her. She truly was a divisive figure.

These sentiments have been magnified by her death. Predictably, news of her demise has been greeted with jubilation in many quarters. Parties are planned across the UK. People have flocked to social networking sites to register their glee, even as others have urged them to show respect. Is it really OK to celebrate Thatcher’s death, as many so obviously believe?

The first thing to make clear is that criticism of the Iron Lady’s policies should not be silenced. Thatcherism is as relevant today as ever. The global financial crisis has placed financial deregulation under the spotlight: many believe that bankers’ greed and feelings of invincibility led in part to the problems. Twenty years on from Thatcher’s time in office the country is probably as eurosceptic as it has ever been. These important debates should not be derailed, even briefly, as a mark of respect. As has been pointed out, this would lead to an imbalance in that many will use her death as an opportunity to promote her policies.

There is a difference however, between criticising Thatcher’s politics and revelling in her death. The reality is that no human being’s death should be celebrated. The slow, agonising defeat of an old lady by dementia is not a cause for happiness, least of all with family and friends in mourning. More than this, though, rejoicing in a death is inhumane; it takes away some of the legitimacy in criticising someone for perceived inhumane characteristics. The belief that a death is a justified quid pro quo for the perceived suffering that a person has inflicted on others strays dangerously close to ‘eye for an eye’ territory – a philosophy and form of punishment that is generally rejected in balanced democracies. This principle applies notwithstanding the level of harm caused by an individual – whether you are talking about Thatcher or Osama Bin Laden.

Debate over her deeply divisive policies should not be silenced by the death of Margaret Thatcher. There is an important difference, however, between criticism and unabashed celebration – primitive feelings of retribution are not the answer.

Alex Rickets

But Ima Celebrity showed she is well and truly alive and kicking by appearing in some more of our earth-shattering paparazzi photography (for who could live without it!).

Walking in a popular area, she showed off her great eating abilities, tucking into a ice-cream on a pleasant day, and that she is quite the techie, texting one of her many friends with her phone.

Wearing clothing, she looked great, as she showed she is quite the raconteur.

She was seen in conversation with a man she has previously been in an intimate relationship with, leading to feverish speculation that they might start a new intimate relationship (Ed: hardly intimate now is it?).

The man in question is another celebrity called Trey Vacuous. The two set many a pulse racing after their relationship blossomed on the set of We Are Celebrities in Los Angeles – Watch Us Be Celebrities in Los Angeles.

But soon things got sour, as scandalous rumours emerged in gossip pages of Trey meeting for lunch with another, female celebrity.

Ima, in her fiery nature, was having none of it, and took straight to Twitter to to say: “SO @TreVacz is having lunch with sum low-grade skank. I always knew he was a cheating dick. #fuckhim #movingon #moralhiground.”

Trey said: “@ImaCelebrity I was only having lunch wit a friend. Dont know why she is airing her dirty linen in public. #publicitywhore #bunnyboila.”

And in a scathing reply, Ima wrote: “Yeh watevs! #ironic #hippocrit”

But if these pictures are anything to go by, it seems true love has blossomed once more!

In a BBC documentary titled Boris Johnson: The Irresistible Rise, first broadcast on Monday, this background was then put under the microscope, with revealing interviews from the man himself, his family and political and journalistic associates past and present. From his early days at Eton and Oxford through to his career in journalism and subsequent political forays, Johnson was depicted as a ruthlessly ambitious high achiever, who had learned how to get his way at a young age and was focused on achieving power and fame for himself. Although his chaotic public persona had some grounding in reality, largely it reflected an understanding that his major political gifts were for comedy and self-deprecation. Behind this mask lay a sharp, scheming mind – during the course of the documentary Johnson was described as a “political chameleon”.

Most interestingly of all, the results of a YouGov survey released on Friday confirmed what we had all known for a while: that if the current Mayor of London was party leader the Conservatives would stand their best chance of gaining a majority in 2015. Asked how they would vote at the next election were David Cameron leader, survey interviewees gave a six-point lead to the Labour Party (on 37 per cent). Substitute Cameron for Boris, however, and a very different picture emerged: Labour’s lead was demolished, with both of the two major parties sitting on 37 per cent. Most of this gain came from voters who said they would vote for a fringe party in the event of Cameron’s continued leadership. This highlights a central truth of great significance to the Conservative Party: Johnson is dynamite among the vast swathes of apathetic Britons.

From where does Boris’s undoubted appeal originate? The answer, correctly alluded to in the documentary, is simple: in an age of austerity, clone-like politicians and general downheartedness he makes people feel good about themselves. His accomplished comedic skills – developed while in education, further shaped through important Have I Got News For You appearances and impressively showcased in front of millions during the London Olympics – are enough to win over people so alienated by the system that they do not base their democratic right to vote on anything approaching sensible political principles. While it would be an oversimplification to claim that all of these voters are fringe party followers, it is safe to say that a large proportion support such parties – explaining the YouGov figures. This is because voters of the main triumvirate of parties are more likely to be ideologically wedded to either left or right.

This ability to influence centrist Britain is significant firstly because in the current climate the apathetic centre ground constitutes a huge part of the overall electorate; and secondly because the Conservatives are in a hole. Despite the fact that Cameron is the most popular Tory in government this will not be enough to save a party that is widely viewed as nasty and sticking up for the wrong interests, particularly in light of continuing crippling public sector cuts. Furthermore, while voters still (just) trust the Tories’ economic handling over that of Labour, this scrap of comfort is eroded with every set of disastrous financial data.

The Tories are in a difficult situation, with many in the party wanting a return to traditional right-wing values yet feeling constrained by their centre-left Liberal Democrat colleagues. There have been signs of desperation in recent weeks, with speculation abounding that figures such as Theresa May, the current Home Secretary, have been considering leadership bids. The precarious nature of Cameron’s position has been reflected by populist speeches on Europe and immigration.

It is widely accepted that Boris Johnson, meanwhile, operates on a platform all of his own. David Cameron’s posh-boy perception almost certainly ensures that he will never lead the Tory party to a parliamentary majority; by most yardsticks however, Johnson is more of a toff. He gained a level of exposure at Eton and Oxford that Cameron never approached. He is passionately pro-banking: it was noticeable that during the recent controversy surrounding EU plans to cap bankers’ bonuses not even industry figures dared to speak out in opposition. No such inhibitions curbed Boris. Regardless of this, though, voters don’t care. Statements for which other politicians would be strung up do not affect Johnson’s popularity. Apparent embarrassments do not touch him. As Cameron – somewhat ruefully – noted after the Mayor ended up stuck on a zip wire last summer: “For any other politician in the world it would be a disaster. For Boris it’s an absolute triumph”.

Over the next few months a challenging decision may well present itself for the Conservative Party. Do they stick with arguably their biggest asset, despite the fact that he has virtually no chance of leading them to a parliamentary majority? Or do they take a chance with charismatic Boris, whose Prime Ministerial credentials are in doubt but who connects with the public in a manner that no other politician can? Last week’s Andrew Marr Show interview arguably shone a light on the kind of difficulty the Mayor will face should he emerge as a serious candidate for party leader: after all, the man is a proven liar and philanderer. The desperation of some Conservative Party figures, however, should not be underestimated. Boris could turn out to be their best hope. One thing is for sure: if Boris de Pfeffel Johnson turns out to be our next Prime Minister, things certainly won’t be boring.

Alex Rickets

I’m not sure what that miracle is, however. Arsenal currently have a good set of players who refuse for whatever reason to realise their potential. Amongst them you look at Russia Captain Andrei Arshavin or Gervinho to name but two. Yes there is room for more quality, but there is greater satisfaction to be had by nurturing talent through the club and winning trophies that way than just buying world class talent directly into the club. It is very rare to find clubs who nurture in this way, you probably get one every generation, and to be frank, at this time, that club is Barcelona.

With the Telegraph reporting the news that a Middle Eastern consortium is preparing to make a £1.5bn bid for Arsenal, committing more funds than ever to the transfer kitty, its difficult not to want to have the shot in the arm to get the club winning again. However, at the back of my mind, I wonder if those victories will be really quite hollow.

The old phrase says you can’t buy love. And ultimately that is what football is all about, emotion. It is easy to buy trophies if you buy the best players in the world and get the best manager in the world to make them play together. It is quite something else to have patience and faith that we can do everything we want to do with the financial and human resources we have at the club.

Some have been very critical about the players that Wenger has bought and sold over the years. On the buying front, he has bought his fair share of tripe, but also has got in Walcott, Henry, Oxlade-Chamberlin and Viera which more than makes up for the Stepanovs’ and Santos’ that leave a sour taste in every fans’ mouth. However, more controversially has been selling our best players. We have lost Robin Van Persie, Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri in recent years. Holding on to the current talent has to be a priority.

Arsenal have two choices as I see it.  We can either accept that we need short term victories to make our fans happy. Or we can ride out this dark period in our history and build a world beating football club the right way with Victoria Concordia Crescit ringing through our ears.

Liberal Democrats

The Lib Dems left everything on the streets of Eastleigh, and for good reason. Written off by many as an electoral force owing to perceived broken pledges and their part in the government’s austerity drive, they really needed to hold onto the constituency. As far as any area can be described as a Lib Dem stronghold this can, due to a strong and respected local council presence. Failure to win here would have been disastrous for the party’s general election prospects and for Nick Clegg’s leadership.

Although victory was not really “against the odds”, it will nonetheless come as a relief for the party faithful. Clegg will now be able to tell activists that the party’s national vulnerability can be offset by stressing its record in local issues. Successful candidate Mike Thornton even gushed that “tonight is a great night for the Lib Dems nationally”. This is overstating things – a closer look at the statistics reveals that the party has lost support in the constituency since 2010 in line with declining national polls figures, and that its winning vote share (32%) is the lowest in a post-war by-election. Clegg will still have to pull something remarkable out of the bag if his party is to avoid electoral obliteration in 2015. For now, though, he can sleep a little easier in the knowledge that his efforts have paid off and judgement day has been postponed.

Conservatives

Indisputably the losers of Eastleigh 2013. Backbench rebel David Davis had said yesterday that “I think if we came third it would be a crisis”, heaping yet more pressure on embattled Prime Minister David Cameron. The Tories had been desperate to win this seat, particularly given their failure to secure favourable constituency boundary changes. In many ways the party’s worst fears were realised last night: not only were they convincingly beaten by the Lib Dems, but they were further marginalised by an increasingly threatening UKIP. As usual, Cameron’s position had not been strengthened by the need to avoid undermining government cohesion: this meant that, contrary to every political instinct in his body, he could not really lay into Clegg over damaging allegations regarding a former Lib Dem chief executive. On top of this, his candidate – Maria Hutchings – turned out to be a nightmare. Deliberately chosen to appeal to right-wing voters and neutralise the UKIP threat, she ended up making magnified gaffes on immigration and gay marriage. In the end her party was forced to strenuously deny that it had deliberately kept her away from radio broadcasts. The Conservatives’ disappointing showing will only increase pressure on the Prime Minister, and lessen the already slim chances of a Tory majority in 2015.

UKIP

Undoubtedly the winners here, despite their second-placed showing behind the Lib Dems. The consensus is that Nigel Farage’s party are really starting to split the right-wing vote, hoovering up disenchanted voters to the considerable detriment of the Conservatives. This has been their best ever election result, confirming that – for now at least – UKIP has a role to play on the national political stage going beyond European Parliament elections. The PM would have hoped to keep this threat at bay with his promise of an in/out EU referendum; however this pledge has gained the Tories little ground in polls. Unless something remarkable occurs it would appear that UKIP will prove fatal to Conservative chances in 2015. It is still far from certain that the party will translate its current momentum into substantive gains in 2015 in terms of its own prospects – protest parties traditionally fade from view in general elections – but for now it is manipulating feelings of alienation towards the political establishment expertly.

Labour

In a funny way, despite the fact Labour was never going to push for victory here the overall situation is favourable to Ed Miliband. The party finished a distant fourth, with roughly a third of the UKIP vote, reflecting the reality that its core support in Eastleigh is far lower than that which it enjoys nationally. However with Labour enjoying a healthy lead in national polls the onus is on the other parties to play catch-up. In this sense Miliband will be delighted at a split in the right-wing vote; notwithstanding its poor showing in Eastleigh, a Labour majority remains the most likely outcome at this point in time.

Alex Rickets